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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 54 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 31 game
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
80%

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 10 games
90%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
90%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 10 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcioften banned
9Class · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
415 picks · 518 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 358 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 456 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
309 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
269 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 354 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 247 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Team Falcons 65%PARIVISION 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
54% · 147 games48% · 79 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Magnus
MagnusMalr1ne
52% · 146 games46% · 122 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Viper
ViperATF
58% · 53 games48% · 100 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 249 games45% · 223 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
54% · 43 games49% · 114 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct44:9
Team Falcons 66%PARIVISION 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusMalr1ne
53% · 120 games53% · 129 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
48% · 127 games58% · 97 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Razor
RazorATF
40% · 125 games51% · 111 games
Sand KingNo[o]ne
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 248 games40% · 247 games
Tusk9Class
Tusk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
49% · 111 games60% · 147 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2