DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 38 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
PARIVISION
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
775 picks · 359 bans
Hoodwink
612 picks · 305 bans
Jakiro
592 picks · 534 bans
Dragon Knight
583 picks · 729 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
548 picks · 334 bans
Centaur Warrunner
510 picks · 589 bans
Mars
509 picks · 767 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:39
Team Falcons 68%PARIVISION 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
AbaddonSatanic
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
SniperMalr1ne
MarsDM
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Slark9Class
VenomancerSneyking
MiranaDukalis
Game 2prediction missed29:32
Team Falcons 66%PARIVISION 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:11:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Troll WarlordSatanic
SlardarATF
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
WindrangerSkiter
EnigmaDM
VenomancerSneyking
ChenDukalis
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Batrider9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2