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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
77%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 24 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 19 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 18 games
78%

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 37 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 23 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 23 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Batyuk · 23 games
61%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 400 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
516 picks · 627 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 291 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 509 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Team Falcons 87%Passion UA 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
57% · 170 games44% · 90 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
57% · 287 games46% · 453 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
56% · 248 games49% · 279 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 422 games46% · 476 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
51% · 524 games49% · 353 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed10:29
Team Falcons 86%Passion UA 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
54% · 160 games49% · 45 games
ViperMoonlight
Viper
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
54% · 57 games49% · 188 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierATF
46% · 253 games44% · 139 games
WindrangerCrystallize
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 138 games55% · 220 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 265 games49% · 281 game
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct30:9
Team Falcons 86%Passion UA 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
46% · 252 games55% · 467 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
51% · 338 games47% · 505 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 434 games53% · 208 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
48% · 406 games52% · 244 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
48% · 319 games53% · 325 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 98%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3