DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 12 games
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 32 games
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
Earthshaker
No!ob · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
269 picks · 390 bans
Phoenix
261 picks · 389 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
Tusk
219 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
Lion
200 picks · 181 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:38
Team Falcons 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkiter
WindrangerTA2000
RazorATF
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
PangolierMalr1ne
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
TechiesSneyking
EnchantressKaori
TuskCr1t-
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Team Falcons 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:00:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSkiter
LunaTA2000
RazorMalr1ne
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerATF
DoomMalik
BatriderCr1t-
PugnaKaori
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 3prediction missed11:34
Team Falcons 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMalr1ne
WeaverTA2000
AbaddonSkiter
MarsMalik
Centaur WarrunnerATF
EarthshakerNo!ob
EnchantressSneyking
BatriderOmaR
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Treant ProtectorKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3