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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 54 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 44 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 37 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 35 games
51%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 33 games
88%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 32 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 29 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 26 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 22 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 710 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 748 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 360 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
357 picks · 212 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 654 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
339 picks · 672 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 426 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
318 picks · 493 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:16
Team Falcons 64%Talon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySkiter
53% · 352 games54% · 464 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
46% · 307 games52% · 140 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Razor
RazorATF
43% · 116 games51% · 316 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
53% · 213 games46% · 81 game
TinkerJhocam
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
52% · 96 games47% · 83 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed27:41
Team Falcons 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:05:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
49% · 176 games47% · 123 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSkiter
53% · 117 games50% · 130 games
MarciWs
Marci
Mars
MarsATF
56% · 148 games40% · 68 games
TinkerKuku
Tinker
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
54% · 275 games50% · 231 game
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterSneyking
45% · 77 games54% · 241 game
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct28:13
Team Falcons 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
49% · 186 games49% · 129 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
46% · 272 games52% · 245 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkiter
47% · 96 games54% · 205 games
Sand KingWs
Sand King
Clinkz
ClinkzCr1t-
46% · 14 games52% · 85 games
RingmasterJhocam
Ringmaster
Muerta
MuertaSneyking
52% · 188 games51% · 92 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3