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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
92%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 10 games
100%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
88%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 7 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 6 games
50%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Nisha · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
zai · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 390 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 111 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
220 picks · 316 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 457 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 298 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
192 picks · 490 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
191 picks · 149 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 392 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:17
Team Falcons 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
50% · 67 games49% · 101 game
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
52% · 179 games50% · 102 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 141 game56% · 83 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
47% · 85 games49% · 257 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
54% · 131 game47% · 60 games
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed34:21
Team Falcons 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
44% · 35 games56% · 82 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 229 games56% · 144 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
46% · 65 games56% · 97 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 125 games49% · 196 games
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
51% · 126 games43% · 61 game
GyrocopteriNSaNiA
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2