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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 42 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 25 games
84%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
65%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Nisha · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
424 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 733 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Team Falcons 64%Team Liquid 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
50% · 130 games48% · 161 game
LunamiCKe
Luna
Doom
DoomATF
55% · 189 games57% · 23 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
44% · 151 game49% · 144 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 107 games45% · 150 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
45% · 31 game61% · 130 games
DisruptorBoxi
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1