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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 47 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 39 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 30 games
63%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 29 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 565 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 164 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 343 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 770 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 563 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Team Falcons 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
59% · 128 games58% · 44 games
SniperNisha
Sniper
Razor
RazorATF
43% · 177 games51% · 152 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
47% · 113 games55% · 232 games
Pangolier33
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
55% · 149 games45% · 173 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
48% · 302 games43% · 268 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSkiter
45% · 156 games57% · 187 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Sniper
SniperNine
52% · 40 games59% · 59 games
Slardar33
Slardar
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 251 game51% · 147 games
WindrangerNisha
Windranger
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
46% · 148 games50% · 110 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Io
IoSneyking
53% · 71 game45% · 163 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct43:8
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
50% · 219 games48% · 40 games
SniperNisha
Sniper
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
45% · 118 games49% · 221 game
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSneyking
58% · 118 games51% · 153 games
Kunkka33
Kunkka
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 80 games46% · 151 game
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
52% · 143 games49% · 113 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3