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ESSENCE II · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:3
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Liquidwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
71%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 35 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 362 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 655 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
360 picks · 203 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
331 picks · 371 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
328 picks · 350 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 447 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
311 picks · 234 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 334 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head9 – 5
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:44
Team Falcons 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:07:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
58% · 178 games50% · 422 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
53% · 262 games46% · 276 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorATF
51% · 68 games41% · 143 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
54% · 164 games56% · 90 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 340 games41% · 81 game
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Team Falcons 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
48% · 382 games50% · 184 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
50% · 61 game51% · 74 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
63% · 44 games47% · 244 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
46% · 284 games57% · 55 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Oracle
OracleSneyking
53% · 35 games46% · 249 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed29:39
Team Falcons 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
43% · 69 games55% · 188 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
48% · 132 games52% · 239 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
49% · 425 games50% · 244 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 82 games54% · 268 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
47% · 300 games49% · 69 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3