DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
Marssignature
ATF · 22 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 12 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
Axesignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 683 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 533 bans
Snapfire
423 picks · 146 bans
Hoodwink
403 picks · 194 bans
Mars
375 picks · 516 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
Team Falcons 85%Team Lynx 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 24:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzSkiter
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Morphling7jesu
ViperATF
Batridermellojul
TinyCr1t-
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Game 2prediction correct37:7
Team Falcons 83%Team Lynx 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorATF
Ursa7jesu
KezSkiter
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
TimbersawMalr1ne
Ember Spiritmellojul
TinyCr1t-
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 98%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2