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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 41 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 40 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 31 game
61%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 19 games
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 740 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 567 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
398 picks · 166 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 346 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 772 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 562 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 39%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Team Falcons 69%Team Spirit 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
40% · 176 games48% · 46 games
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
39% · 27 games50% · 204 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
45% · 71 game56% · 172 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 109 games56% · 83 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
52% · 192 games57% · 70 games
IoMira
Io
Game 2prediction correct43:9
Team Falcons 68%Team Spirit 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
48% · 173 games48% · 41 game
ViperLarl
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNine
45% · 93 games48% · 184 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Slardar
SlardarATF
51% · 65 games60% · 34 games
BristlebackCollapse
Bristleback
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 144 games49% · 195 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 125 games54% · 146 games
GrimstrokeMira
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed27:31
Team Falcons 70%Team Spirit 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
57% · 183 games48% · 194 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierNine
52% · 232 games52% · 212 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
50% · 269 games50% · 77 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 118 games49% · 238 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
51% · 23 games47% · 104 games
BaneMira
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3