BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 19 games
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 16 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
585 picks · 599 bans
Hoodwink
561 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 539 bans
Tusk
458 picks · 277 bans
Jakiro
457 picks · 282 bans
Mars
451 picks · 737 bans
Puck
430 picks · 1127 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total91% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Team Falcons 77%Team Tidebound 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
Terrorbladeshiro
SlardarATF
Shadow FiendEcho
PuckMalr1ne
Primal Beastniu
JakiroSneyking
Warlocky`
RingmasterCr1t-
TuskpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 91%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1