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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 25 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 24 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 27 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 24 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 423 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 541 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 721 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 640 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 606 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 728 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:24
Team Falcons 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
55% · 116 games49% · 249 games
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingSkiter
55% · 83 games52% · 105 games
InvokerTopson
Invoker
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
50% · 134 games47% · 42 games
Night StalkerRAMZES666
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 157 games45% · 178 games
MiranaSaksa
Mirana
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
53% · 176 games46% · 92 games
MarciWhitemon
Marci
Game 2prediction missed28:24
Team Falcons 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:07:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSkiter
47% · 140 games51% · 200 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Doom
DoomATF
48% · 133 games52% · 113 games
InvokerTopson
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 306 games47% · 236 games
KunkkaRAMZES666
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
45% · 270 games47% · 198 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleSneyking
62% · 44 games56% · 146 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2