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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 54 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 43 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 30 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 27 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 39 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 30 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 26 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 721 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 743 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
467 picks · 458 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
454 picks · 355 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 495 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 1029 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 929 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 76%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 7
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
Team Falcons 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 348 games47% · 239 games
Doom33
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 557 games48% · 158 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkiter
51% · 138 games49% · 376 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Chen
ChenSneyking
56% · 170 games47% · 308 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
52% · 104 games51% · 236 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Team Falcons 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
54% · 415 games55% · 232 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
49% · 411 games48% · 499 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyATF
53% · 508 games44% · 417 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionCr1t-
61% · 19 games50% · 362 games
MuertaWhitemon
Muerta
Tusk
TuskSneyking
45% · 284 games49% · 127 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2