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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 53 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 30 games
87%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 26 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 25 games
68%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 42 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 32 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 707 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
383 picks · 755 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 379 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
353 picks · 209 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 626 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
341 picks · 658 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
316 picks · 578 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 418 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head10 – 8
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:24
Team Falcons 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:12:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 237 games52% · 362 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 356 games53% · 353 games
MorphlingCrystallis
Morphling
Tiny
TinySkiter
46% · 406 games45% · 135 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
54% · 227 games52% · 354 games
JakiroSaksa
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
45% · 109 games47% · 131 game
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Team Falcons 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
46% · 239 games54% · 68 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierATF
47% · 412 games54% · 385 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
43% · 167 games55% · 278 games
Doom33
Doom
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
46% · 66 games54% · 129 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Tusk
TuskSneyking
48% · 304 games53% · 328 games
MuertaSaksa
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct7:34
Team Falcons 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySkiter
47% · 421 game45% · 211 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
47% · 115 games58% · 219 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
54% · 114 games40% · 359 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroCr1t-
48% · 312 games56% · 122 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
53% · 99 games54% · 150 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3