?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 22 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 21 game
62%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
630 picks · 998 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 443 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 498 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 631 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
452 picks · 1067 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
446 picks · 282 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 584 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 502 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 6
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
Team Falcons 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
45% · 467 games53% · 335 games
Shadow FiendPure~
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
49% · 450 games52% · 604 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
52% · 309 games49% · 642 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
49% · 373 games52% · 391 game
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
48% · 675 games52% · 302 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct12:23
Team Falcons 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMalr1ne
49% · 163 games44% · 160 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Razor
RazorSkiter
57% · 100 games50% · 272 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
50% · 186 games43% · 89 games
Largo33
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 188 games49% · 74 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSneyking
64% · 58 games56% · 100 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2