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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 22 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 21 game
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
62%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 31 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 12 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Xm · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 358 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
349 picks · 643 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 340 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 228 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 301 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 425 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:10
Team Falcons 60%Vici Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireMalr1ne
46% · 267 games57% · 68 games
Lone Druidshiro
Lone Druid
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
49% · 203 games52% · 289 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
51% · 230 games58% · 75 games
MiranaXm
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 150 games49% · 188 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 365 games47% · 595 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct18:2
Team Falcons 62%Vici Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 11:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
56% · 82 games49% · 203 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
54% · 117 games57% · 114 games
LargoFaith_bian
Largo
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
43% · 201 game29% · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritshiro
Vengeful Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
52% · 82 games46% · 191 game
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
49% · 314 games47% · 285 games
Hoodwinky`
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2