?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 22 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
73%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 22 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 20 games
30%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Abed · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 299 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 570 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 344 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
417 picks · 315 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 317 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 194 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 839 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 842 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:42
Team Falcons 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:06:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
43% · 360 games56% · 32 games
Lone DruidTimado
Lone Druid
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
42% · 91 game56% · 241 game
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
46% · 144 games56% · 146 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
43% · 151 game63% · 61 game
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Lich
LichSneyking
48% · 28 games53% · 294 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct56:49
Team Falcons 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
50% · 114 games54% · 219 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
44% · 274 games59% · 170 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
48% · 97 games44% · 233 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
39% · 218 games56% · 217 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 235 games60% · 99 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct27:17
Team Falcons 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
53% · 202 games57% · 153 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
44% · 368 games49% · 128 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
45% · 108 games49% · 266 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Lich
LichSneyking
49% · 26 games55% · 57 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
49% · 176 games53% · 276 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3