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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 31 game
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 23 games
87%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
85%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
100%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 338 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 474 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
291 picks · 399 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
279 picks · 195 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
275 picks · 148 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 403 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
264 picks · 465 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
Team Falcons 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 110 games49% · 155 games
Naga SirenAme
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 158 games52% · 204 games
PuckXm
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 232 games50% · 121 game
Dragon KnightXxs
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
50% · 197 games50% · 258 games
LionXinQ
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCr1t-
51% · 107 games55% · 66 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct42:11
Team Falcons 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
54% · 126 games48% · 137 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
52% · 61 game45% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsATF
55% · 148 games49% · 73 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
50% · 143 games45% · 103 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
50% · 135 games52% · 132 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2