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Elite League · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:3
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
83%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 734 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 200 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
458 picks · 898 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 603 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 192 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 670 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
422 picks · 322 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
417 picks · 714 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:22
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
48% · 49 games48% · 93 games
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
46% · 80 games38% · 65 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Doom
DoomATF
55% · 149 games48% · 47 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
45% · 48 games53% · 125 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 157 games58% · 153 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed14:25
Team Falcons 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
54% · 134 games54% · 241 game
LunaAme
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
46% · 206 games56% · 135 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
47% · 283 games49% · 244 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
43% · 151 game57% · 218 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 245 games44% · 181 game
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed7:29
Team Falcons 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
43% · 198 games41% · 60 games
ViperXm
Viper
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
53% · 346 games52% · 255 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
52% · 147 games53% · 273 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Lion
LionCr1t-
49% · 235 games54% · 301 game
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorSneyking
56% · 128 games44% · 165 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Game 4prediction missed27:36
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
44% · 148 games53% · 40 games
Chaos KnightAme
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomATF
50% · 188 games47% · 142 games
RazorXm
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
47% · 142 games57% · 257 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
40% · 95 games54% · 122 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 176 games57% · 188 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4