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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 39 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
72%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
72%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 702 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 374 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
322 picks · 620 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 256 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 212 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 537 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
37% · 39 games48% · 117 games
SvenAme
Sven
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
53% · 196 games52% · 182 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
52% · 47 games53% · 136 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
48% · 202 games51% · 42 games
JakiroXinQ
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
54% · 244 games49% · 251 game
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed8:21
Team Falcons 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
53% · 189 games48% · 130 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
57% · 108 games44% · 216 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 227 games47% · 120 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
57% · 212 games47% · 234 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 204 games46% · 240 games
LionXinQ
Lion
Game 3prediction correct22:4
Team Falcons 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
48% · 261 game49% · 137 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Sven
SvenSkiter
47% · 280 games56% · 346 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 435 games46% · 226 games
Vengeful SpiritXm
Vengeful Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 280 games50% · 395 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroCr1t-
52% · 69 games51% · 221 game
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3