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BLAST Slam II · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 39 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
94%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 33 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 32 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 29 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 14 games
64%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 399 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
464 picks · 569 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 550 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 526 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 772 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 454 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 864 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:20
Team Falcons 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
54% · 75 games49% · 48 games
Spectrelou
Spectre
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
38% · 27 games54% · 210 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierATF
43% · 234 games58% · 184 games
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Zeus
ZeusSneyking
42% · 43 games57% · 30 games
Bounty HunterPyw
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
46% · 242 games53% · 149 games
LichPoloson
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1