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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
79%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 23 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 23 games
70%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
81%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 13 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 933 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 423 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 657 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 943 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:17
Team Falcons 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
42% · 50 games45% · 219 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
54% · 254 games44% · 117 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingATF
50% · 153 games48% · 153 games
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Queen of Pain
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 62 games61% · 138 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
54% · 151 game50% · 43 games
Lionfy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1