?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
80%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 8 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 6 games
17%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
278 picks · 379 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 112 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
220 picks · 489 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
213 picks · 318 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 306 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 416 bans
58%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 473 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
186 picks · 352 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 44%
Hero pool strength68% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
Team Falcons 73%Yellow Submarine 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 243 games50% · 51 game
LunaSatanic
Luna
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
52% · 112 games55% · 207 games
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarATF
little data48% · 15 games
Lone DruidpJonn
Lone Druid
Chen
ChenFishman
55% · 35 games47% · 65 games
Lionrue
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
48% · 128 games50% · 180 games
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Team Falcons 73%Yellow Submarine 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 22:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
51% · 97 games53% · 109 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 14 games54% · 168 games
Primal BeastpJonn
Primal Beast
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
43% · 163 games54% · 99 games
Puckerase
Puck
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
47% · 113 games44% · 79 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
53% · 313 games50% · 245 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2