Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
Team FISSUREloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Staffwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team FISSURE
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 704 bans
Phoenix
494 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
426 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
418 picks · 1006 bans
Bristleback
397 picks · 915 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Team FISSURE
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team FISSURE 49%Aurora Staff 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Game 2prediction correct
Team FISSURE 49%Aurora Staff 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 51%
Series resultAurora Staff 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2