The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Fusionwin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSTeam Saiyanloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 571 bans
Puck
505 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 645 bans
Marci
464 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Team Fusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:29
Team Fusion 78%Team Saiyan 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 26:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 78%
Series resultTeam Fusion 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1