Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTGTeam Generationwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NNoUndyingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
velheor · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Tiny
velheor · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
60 picks · 126 bans
Puck
52 picks · 136 bans
Earth Spirit
48 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
45 picks · 80 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 45 bans
Monkey King
38 picks · 78 bans
Undying
38 picks · 61 bans
Rubick
35 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% NoUndying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:42
Team Generation 59%NoUndying 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Generation — the game was taken by NoUndying in 1:01:19.
Game 2prediction missed33:42
Team Generation 59%NoUndying 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Generation — the game was taken by NoUndying in 52:09.
Game 3prediction missed33:17
Team Generation 59%NoUndying 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Generation — the game was taken by NoUndying in 39:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Generation · 59%
Series resultTeam Generation 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3