PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Hryvniawin 1:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DMSloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
DMS
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
409 picks · 438 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 317 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:29
Team Hryvnia 32%DMS 68%
The model gave 68% on DMS — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 52:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 68%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1