European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
Dawnbreakeroften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Kalmychata
Sven
rincyq · 5 games
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 2 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
567 picks · 642 bans
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
472 picks · 421 bans
Terrorblade
411 picks · 854 bans
Shadow Shaman
396 picks · 451 bans
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 566 bans
Tusk
383 picks · 337 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Hryvnia 25%Kalmychata 75%
The model gave 75% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 25%Kalmychata 75%
The model gave 75% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 25%Kalmychata 75%
The model gave 75% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 75%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3