European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nightshadewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Nightshade
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
253 picks · 305 bans
Dark Willow
248 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 235 bans
Treant Protector
212 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
203 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
203 picks · 276 bans
Nature's Prophet
184 picks · 451 bans
Muerta
180 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Hryvnia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:32
Team Hryvnia 50%Nightshade 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Nightshade in 52:44.
Game 2prediction missed36:30
Team Hryvnia 50%Nightshade 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Nightshade in 51:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Hryvnia · 50%
Series resultNightshade 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2