DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 352 bans
Centaur Warrunner
363 picks · 586 bans
Techies
351 picks · 274 bans
Mars
350 picks · 542 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 679 bans
Hoodwink
320 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Hryvnia 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 77%
Series resultRest Farmers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3