Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTITeam Insaneloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Silkwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Insane
No games played over 6 months.
Silk
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
249 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 534 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 573 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 126 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team Insane
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Insane
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Team Insane 65%Silk 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Insane — the game was taken by Team Insane in 53:05.
Game 2prediction missed12:45
Team Insane 65%Silk 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Insane — the game was taken by Silk in 41:46.
Game 3prediction missed44:58
Team Insane 65%Silk 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Insane — the game was taken by Silk in 1:13:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Insane · 65%
Series resultSilk 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3