EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs predictionTJTeam Jenzloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSTeam Syntaxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Jenz
Lina
No!ob · 5 games
Luna
Parker · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Ringmaster
Jing · 3 games
Shadow Demon
Jing · 3 games
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Largooften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Omniknight
Yadomi · 2 games
Team Syntax
Tusksignature
Stoic · 7 games
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 227 bans
Clockwerk
344 picks · 641 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 343 bans
Windranger
314 picks · 230 bans
Bane
299 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 394 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:35
Team Jenz 59%Team Syntax 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
Dark Seeremptiness
SnapfireNo!ob
MiranaJeezy
RubickJing
BaneStoic
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Team Jenz 58%Team Syntax 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
Axeemptiness
LifestealerParker
MiranaJeezy
SnapfireJing
BaneStoic
RingmasterYadomi
Game 3prediction missed35:38
Team Jenz 59%Team Syntax 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidParker
Timbersawemptiness
SnapfireNo!ob
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Shadow DemonJing
UndyingStoic
TuskYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 68%
Series resultTeam Syntax 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3