Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kingpinwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 265 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 519 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Kingpin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed68:31
Team Kingpin 37%GRIN esports 63%
The model gave 63% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Team Kingpin in 44:45.
Game 2prediction missed43:25
Team Kingpin 37%GRIN esports 63%
The model gave 63% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Team Kingpin in 51:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Kingpin 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2