Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kingpinloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
357 picks · 341 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 462 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 553 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
217 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Kingpin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:41
Team Kingpin 42%TiltedBoys 58%
The model gave 58% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 37:00.
Game 2prediction correct22:38
Team Kingpin 42%TiltedBoys 58%
The model gave 58% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 34:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 58%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2