Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTKTeam KNGI NAloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WWojtekwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team KNGI NA
No games played over 6 months.
Wojtek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
772 picks · 503 bans
Tiny
547 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 643 bans
Snapfire
395 picks · 282 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 781 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team KNGI NA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Wojtek
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
Team KNGI NA 41%Wojtek 59%
The model gave 59% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek in 34:52.
Game 2prediction correct30:50
Team KNGI NA 41%Wojtek 59%
The model gave 59% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek in 39:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteWojtek · 59%
Series resultWojtek 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2