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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 32 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 776 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 347 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
339 picks · 241 bans
48%
Weaver
Weaver
339 picks · 703 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
306 picks · 497 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
300 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
289 picks · 616 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
Team Liquid 64%1w Team 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 56:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
41% · 148 games60% · 75 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
51% · 195 games44% · 104 games
SnapfireChira JUNIOR
Snapfire
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
49% · 141 game62% · 83 games
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
48% · 90 games55% · 205 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
50% · 85 games42% · 192 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed5:30
Team Liquid 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 23:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
53% · 231 game47% · 129 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritmiCKe
48% · 247 games55% · 263 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
47% · 107 games54% · 133 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Lion
LionBoxi
50% · 233 games46% · 207 games
Phoenixswedenstrong
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
46% · 101 game55% · 187 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct20:12
Team Liquid 65%1w Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
49% · 62 games49% · 137 games
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
54% · 128 games44% · 50 games
BroodmotherMunkushi~
Broodmother
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
51% · 119 games49% · 36 games
Sand KingCloud
Sand King
Chen
CheniNSaNiA
59% · 74 games46% · 195 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
54% · 104 games46% · 69 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3