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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 30 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
35%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
41%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 363 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 655 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 206 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
330 picks · 370 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 350 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 446 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
312 picks · 233 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 422 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:5
Team Liquid 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
44% · 238 games44% · 166 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Puck
PuckNisha
56% · 184 games50% · 277 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
58% · 232 games48% · 146 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
54% · 368 games41% · 322 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 267 games57% · 378 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Game 2prediction correct53:44
Team Liquid 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 57:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
52% · 318 games55% · 97 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Tiny
TinymiCKe
45% · 383 games45% · 71 game
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Underlord
UnderlordAce
46% · 216 games53% · 153 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
55% · 168 games48% · 260 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctortOfu
47% · 50 games53% · 554 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2