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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 21 game
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 39 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 34 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 31 game
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 26 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 25 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
670 picks · 704 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
618 picks · 429 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 990 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
468 picks · 1175 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
439 picks · 713 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
435 picks · 393 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 1124 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
Team Liquid 59%9Pandas 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautmiCKe
43% · 71 game59% · 96 games
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Mars
Marszai
45% · 171 game52% · 196 games
BroodmotherMieRo
Broodmother
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
54% · 275 games48% · 121 game
Windrangerkiyotaka
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
49% · 239 games49% · 536 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
46% · 344 games53% · 151 game
PugnaSolo
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct33:6
Team Liquid 63%9Pandas 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
50% · 171 game50% · 281 game
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNisha
48% · 338 games50% · 160 games
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
Templar Assassin
Visage
Visagezai
47% · 153 games58% · 111 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyBoxi
49% · 480 games53% · 128 games
Spirit BreakerSolo
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
49% · 318 games46% · 780 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct45:16
Team Liquid 61%9Pandas 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
54% · 128 games52% · 432 games
Nature's ProphetMieRo
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzai
49% · 374 games54% · 264 games
BroodmotherRAMZES666
Broodmother
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 537 games52% · 601 game
Pangolierkiyotaka
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickBoxi
47% · 801 game45% · 605 games
SnapfireAntares
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
49% · 497 games53% · 435 games
SilencerSolo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3