?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
miCKe · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
80%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
435 picks · 321 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 595 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
346 picks · 413 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 769 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 180 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
267 picks · 447 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
262 picks · 380 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 331 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
Team Liquid 66%Alliance 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:09.
Game 2prediction missed40:27
Team Liquid 66%Alliance 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:00.
Game 3prediction correct21:49
Team Liquid 66%Alliance 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3