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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 40 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 33 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ace · 24 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 24 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 55 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 50 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 39 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 38 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 38 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 361 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
360 picks · 432 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 614 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 486 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
318 picks · 614 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
308 picks · 349 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
303 picks · 165 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 218 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:32
Team Liquid 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
48% · 378 games50% · 102 games
NecrophosWs
Necrophos
Huskar
HuskarNisha
49% · 68 games55% · 166 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Underlord
UnderlordAce
48% · 170 games53% · 517 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
56% · 174 games47% · 150 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
47% · 520 games47% · 375 games
RubickKaori
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Team Liquid 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
51% · 133 games52% · 59 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 197 games45% · 492 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
60% · 354 games42% · 175 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
62% · 164 games43% · 477 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
49% · 543 games47% · 188 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 3prediction correct32:19
Team Liquid 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
51% · 150 games49% · 532 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
48% · 354 games55% · 68 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
52% · 311 games50% · 320 games
AxeWs
Axe
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
60% · 185 games43% · 447 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
51% · 584 games44% · 217 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3