?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AVULUSloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
53%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 42 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 38 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 26 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 419 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 535 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 568 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
435 picks · 231 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 507 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 752 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 588 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 420 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:9
Team Liquid 59%AVULUS 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
47% · 103 games55% · 212 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
44% · 209 games52% · 132 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Tiny
TinyNisha
49% · 340 games58% · 160 games
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
43% · 276 games53% · 292 games
LionEkki
Lion
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
46% · 134 games52% · 266 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1