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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
69%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 41 game
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 38 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
520 picks · 803 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 624 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 507 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
471 picks · 569 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
436 picks · 369 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
434 picks · 1012 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 783 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 906 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:15
Team Liquid 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
46% · 98 games57% · 67 games
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
45% · 171 game55% · 234 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusNisha
53% · 222 games47% · 349 games
PangolierStormstormer
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 237 games50% · 161 game
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
54% · 117 games47% · 34 games
RikiEkki
Riki
Game 2prediction correct37:10
Team Liquid 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
55% · 343 games41% · 38 games
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
Bloodseeker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
54% · 121 game47% · 80 games
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
50% · 296 games46% · 156 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Riki
RikiBoxi
61% · 38 games53% · 278 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
52% · 63 games42% · 309 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2