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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 37 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 30 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 29 games
59%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
74%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 26 games
81%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 399 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
189 picks · 259 bans
52%
Sven
Sven
173 picks · 253 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
171 picks · 359 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
164 picks · 99 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Team Liquid 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
54% · 33 games59% · 39 games
DawnbreakerPure~
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
47% · 63 games48% · 30 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
50% · 100 games52% · 162 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
48% · 48 games52% · 55 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
47% · 89 games44% · 47 games
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed22:7
Team Liquid 43%BETBOOM TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
42% · 49 games52% · 235 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Bristleback
Bristlebackzai
38% · 4 games63% · 74 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
48% · 256 games47% · 72 games
DawnbreakerPure~
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
45% · 117 games59% · 104 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
46% · 216 games50% · 157 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2