Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
miCKe · 25 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Rubick
Boxi · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 14 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 786 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 953 bans
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 611 bans
Techies
452 picks · 345 bans
Mars
444 picks · 699 bans
Rubick
440 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
429 picks · 734 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
Team Liquid 87%Blacklist International 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:57.
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Liquid 87%Blacklist International 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 87%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2