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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 37 games
51%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 34 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
68%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 27 games
37%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
55%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 23 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 18 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
28%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 426 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 306 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 903 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
394 picks · 815 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 536 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
356 picks · 710 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 520 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:22
Team Liquid 63%BOOM Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
45% · 257 games44% · 172 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
55% · 162 games47% · 267 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
51% · 76 games51% · 221 game
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
43% · 210 games50% · 285 games
BatriderMatthew
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoxi
53% · 334 games62% · 94 games
MarciYadomi
Marci
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Team Liquid 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
46% · 239 games48% · 132 games
MedusaParker
Medusa
Doom
Doom33
51% · 216 games52% · 445 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
47% · 267 games55% · 94 games
Death ProphetSacred
Death Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
52% · 169 games47% · 138 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixBoxi
47% · 189 games55% · 271 game
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct25:4
Team Liquid 66%BOOM Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
49% · 112 games46% · 136 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
58% · 171 game46% · 149 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand King33
52% · 91 game50% · 190 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
54% · 293 games41% · 150 games
BatriderMatthew
Batrider
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
60% · 47 games45% · 89 games
JakiroYadomi
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3