Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 9 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
miCKe · 6 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
450 picks · 271 bans
Mars
380 picks · 523 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 502 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
292 picks · 458 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 507 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
Team Liquid 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
MorphlingFocus
BatridermiCKe
Void SpiritThuG
Sand Kingzai
Death ProphetSkyLark
MiranaBoxi
Earth SpiritdEsire
IoiNSaNiA
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct24:6
Team Liquid 62%Brame 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
TinyFocus
Necrophoszai
InvokerThuG
Sand KingmiCKe
BeastmasterSkyLark
MiranaBoxi
HoodwinkdEsire
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
ChenSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2