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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 712 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
620 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 438 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1195 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Team Liquid 66%Evil Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
51% · 74 games61% · 81 game
SlarkPakazs
Slark
Doom
Doomzai
46% · 260 games52% · 197 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
41% · 95 games55% · 44 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
46% · 120 games55% · 79 games
IoPanda
Io
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
44% · 181 game52% · 329 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Team Liquid 67%Evil Geniuses 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
47% · 63 games54% · 197 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
49% · 309 games46% · 84 games
Queen of PainChris Luck
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
53% · 126 games48% · 53 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
50% · 235 games45% · 529 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
58% · 344 games47% · 214 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2