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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
83%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 19 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
915 picks · 673 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 441 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 426 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
507 picks · 803 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
465 picks · 1092 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
460 picks · 335 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
456 picks · 334 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
453 picks · 1022 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Team Liquid 66%Evil Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistmiCKe
64% · 94 games48% · 129 games
UrsaPakazs
Ursa
Doom
Doomzai
47% · 237 games49% · 104 games
UnderlordChris Luck
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
49% · 311 games49% · 77 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
50% · 184 games49% · 78 games
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Oracle
OracleBoxi
42% · 16 games48% · 454 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Team Liquid 66%Evil Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
49% · 51 game48% · 190 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
53% · 234 games49% · 188 games
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
42% · 284 games55% · 104 games
UnderlordWisper
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
53% · 216 games51% · 76 games
PugnaMatthew
Pugna
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
50% · 10 games51% · 237 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2