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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 13 games
77%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1009 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 463 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 429 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1100 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 31%
Hero pool strength63% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:38
Team Liquid 77%Execration 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:02:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
53% · 46 games52% · 66 games
SvenPalos
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 174 games43% · 111 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Underlord
Underlordzai
68% · 33 games56% · 47 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
55% · 68 games45% · 225 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
46% · 128 games
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Liquid 79%Execration 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
61% · 25 games42% · 62 games
Troll WarlordPalos
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
51% · 88 games51% · 191 game
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
52% · 129 games47% · 63 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
52% · 96 games47% · 72 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
Io
IoBoxi
55% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 91%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2